Avg. Return +3 Mo.
Avg. Return +12 Mo.
Avg. Return +18 Mo.
Positive 12-Mo. Outcomes
9 / 12
Average S&P 500 Return — Relative to Conflict Onset
Composite of all 12 military engagements. 9/11's post-conflict decline reflects a pre-existing recession, not the attack itself.
Key Insight: Markets historically recover within 90–180 days following a U.S. military action when no concurrent recession is present.
The 18-month average return of across all conflicts underscores that geopolitical shock
is a buying opportunity more often than it is a permanent impairment.
Individual Conflict Performance Paths
Click a conflict below to highlight it and view details. Dashed line = Iran 2025 (incomplete data).
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Markets Recover
In 9 of 12 conflicts, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later — when no concurrent recession existed.
Initial Shock Is Normal
Near-term volatility is expected. History shows that panic-selling into military events has been costly for investors.
Context Is Everything
9/11's poor outcome was driven by a pre-existing recession. The conflict accelerated, but did not cause, the decline.